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Toncoin (TON) vs Sticky Price CPI
Correlation
of % moves
+47%
In sync
of periods
68%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
23
These move in the same direction about 68% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~22% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Sticky Price CPI moves ~11 months before TON
Watch Sticky Price CPI for an early read on TON.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
68%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+47%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
23 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
701
701
Normalized
701
701
Prepared
25
701
Aligned
23
23
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
22%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
22
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 months.
Selected shift
-11 months
Correlation at this shift
+77%
+30% stronger than no-shift baseline
Sticky Price CPI shifted 11 months later. Reads: "Does Toncoin (TON) today line up with Sticky Price CPI 11 months ago?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+47%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-11 months
+77%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+4%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-90%
7 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
680
A: 2 / B: 678
Series A
Toncoin (TON)
TON
Crypto · 701 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Sticky Price CPI
CORESTICKM159SFRBATL
FRED · 701 raw → 701 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0960
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0082
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: crypto-ton_fred-corestickm159sfrbatl_monthly_5y