Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Toncoin (TON) vs HY Bond Spread
Correlation
of % moves
-23%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-20
498
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~5% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-23%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-31% → -14%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
498 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
701
786
Normalized
701
786
Prepared
701
786
Aligned
498
498
Invalid removed
R²(i)
5.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
498
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-23%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
496 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-23%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-23%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-7%
56 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-9%
67 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-47%
125 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
491
A: 203 / B: 288
Series A
Toncoin (TON)
TON
Crypto · 701 raw → 701 prepared
Series B
HY Bond Spread
BAMLH0A0HYM2
FRED · 786 raw → 786 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1109
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0003
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-ton_fred-bamlh0a0hym2_daily_5y