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Toncoin (TON) vs Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
Correlation
of % moves
+18%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
24
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~3% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield moves ~11 months before TON
Watch Aaa Corporate Bond Yield for an early read on TON.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+18%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-25% → +55%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
24 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
701
1,288
Normalized
701
1,288
Prepared
25
1,288
Aligned
24
24
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
3.2%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
24
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -13 to 13 months.
Selected shift
-11 months
Correlation at this shift
-61%
+43% stronger than no-shift baseline
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield shifted 11 months later. Reads: "Does Toncoin (TON) today line up with Aaa Corporate Bond Yield 11 months ago?"
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+18%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-11 months
-61%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+66%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-75%
10 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,265
A: 1 / B: 1264
Series A
Toncoin (TON)
TON
Crypto · 701 raw → 25 prepared
Series B
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,288 raw → 1,288 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0398
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0041
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: crypto-ton_fred-aaa_monthly_5y