Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) vs 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-32%
In sync
of periods
35%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-21
1,241
These move in the same direction about 35% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~10% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
35.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-32%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-37% → -27%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,241 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
5,851
Normalized
1,254
5,851
Prepared
1,254
5,851
Aligned
1,241
1,241
Invalid removed
R²(i)
10.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,241
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-32%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,240 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-32%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-32%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+56%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+5%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-67%
115 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
4,623
A: 13 / B: 4610
Series A
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF)
TMF
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
T5YIFR
FRED · 5,851 raw → 5,851 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1668
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0003
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-t5yifr_stock-tmf_daily_5y