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Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) vs 10-Year Real Interest Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-44%
In sync
of periods
42%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
60
These move in the same direction about 42% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~19% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
42%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-44%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
534
Normalized
1,254
534
Prepared
61
534
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
19%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-44%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
59 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-44%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-44%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-47%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-21%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-72%
34 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
475
A: 1 / B: 474
Series A
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF)
TMF
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 534 raw → 534 prepared
Sign agreement
96.7%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.2337
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0082
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-reaintratrearat10y_stock-tmf_monthly_5y