SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
of % moves
-94%
In sync
of periods
42%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
60
These move opposite each other about 42% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~89% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
42.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-94%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-97% → -91%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,255
532
Normalized
1,255
532
Prepared
61
532
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
R²(i)
89.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
60
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-94%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
60 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-94%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-94%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-43%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-21%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-71%
34 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
473
A: 1 / B: 472
Series A
TMF
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 532 raw → 532 prepared
Sign agreement
95.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0077
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.1225
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-reaintratrearat10y_stock-tmf_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.