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Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) vs PPI: All Commodities
Correlation
of % moves
-34%
In sync
of periods
29%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
59
These move in the same direction about 29% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~12% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
PPI: All Commodities moves ~16 months before TMF
Watch PPI: All Commodities for an early read on TMF.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
29%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-34%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
1,361
Normalized
1,254
1,361
Prepared
61
1,361
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
12%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-16 months
Correlation at this shift
-41%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
PPI: All Commodities shifted 16 months later. Reads: "Does Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) today line up with PPI: All Commodities 16 months ago?"
42 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-34%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-16 months
-41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+13%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+38%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-68%
41 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,304
A: 2 / B: 1302
Series A
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF)
TMF
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
PPI: All Commodities
PPIACO
FRED · 1,361 raw → 1,361 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0445
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0024
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-ppiaco_stock-tmf_monthly_5y