SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
of % moves
-95%
In sync
of periods
28%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-18
261
These move opposite each other about 28% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~91% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Swings around
Their relationship swings around — sometimes tight, sometimes loose. Don't trust a single snapshot.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
28.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-95%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-96% → -94%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
261 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,255
1,810
Normalized
1,255
1,810
Prepared
262
1,810
Aligned
261
261
Invalid removed
R²(i)
91.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
261
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-95%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
261 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-95%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-95%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-8%
31 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-29%
41 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-60%
177 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,550
A: 1 / B: 1549
Series A
TMF
Stock · 1,255 raw → 262 prepared
Series B
15Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE15US
FRED · 1,810 raw → 1,810 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0161
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
6.7600
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-mortgage15us_stock-tmf_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.