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Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) vs 5Y Treasury Yield
Correlation
of % moves
-73%
In sync
of periods
16%
History
daysdays · through 2026-08-31
1,240
These move in the same direction about 16% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~53% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
16%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-73%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-76% → -70%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,240 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,253
16,151
Normalized
1,253
16,151
Prepared
1,253
16,151
Aligned
1,240
1,240
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
53%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,239
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-73%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,239 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-73%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-73%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+76%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-65%
134 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
14,924
A: 13 / B: 14911
Series A
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF)
TMF
Stock · 1,253 raw → 1,253 prepared
Series B
5Y Treasury Yield
DGS5
FRED · 16,151 raw → 16,151 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
17
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.5565
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0004
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-dgs5_stock-tmf_daily_5y