SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
of % moves
-96%
In sync
of periods
16%
History
daysdays · through 2026-04-30
1,242
These move opposite each other about 16% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~91% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
16.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-96%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-96% → -95%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,242 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
16,067
Normalized
1,255
16,067
Prepared
1,255
16,067
Aligned
1,242
1,242
Invalid removed
R²(i)
91.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,242
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-96%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,242 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-96%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-96%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+50%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+10%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-67%
218 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
14,838
A: 13 / B: 14825
Series A
TMF
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
5Y Treasury Yield
DGS5
FRED · 16,067 raw → 16,067 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0132
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4.7232
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dgs5_stock-tmf_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.