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Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) vs 2Y Treasury Yield
Correlation
of % moves
-40%
In sync
of periods
25%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-20
1,240
These move in the same direction about 25% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~16% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
25.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-40%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-44% → -35%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,240 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
12,489
Normalized
1,254
12,489
Prepared
1,254
12,489
Aligned
1,240
1,240
Invalid removed
R²(i)
15.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,240
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-40%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,239 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-40%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-40%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-26%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-1%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-50%
130 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
11,263
A: 14 / B: 11249
Series A
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF)
TMF
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
2Y Treasury Yield
DGS2
FRED · 12,489 raw → 12,489 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.4761
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0019
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-dgs2_stock-tmf_daily_5y