SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
of % moves
-98%
In sync
of periods
9%
History
daysdays · through 2026-04-30
1,242
These move opposite each other about 9% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~96% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
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Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
8.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-98%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-98% → -98%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,242 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
16,067
Normalized
1,255
16,067
Prepared
1,255
16,067
Aligned
1,242
1,242
Invalid removed
R²(i)
96.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,242
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-98%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,242 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-98%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-98%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-53%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+85%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-74%
235 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
14,838
A: 13 / B: 14825
Series A
TMF
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
10Y Treasury Yield
DGS10
FRED · 16,067 raw → 16,067 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0124
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4.7936
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dgs10_stock-tmf_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.