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Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) vs USD/JPY Exchange Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-34%
In sync
of periods
36%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-02
1,239
These move in the same direction about 36% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~12% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
36%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-34%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,239 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
13,911
Normalized
1,254
13,911
Prepared
1,254
13,911
Aligned
1,239
1,239
Invalid removed
12%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,238
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-34%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,238 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-34%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-34%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-6%
37 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+54%
21 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-38%
79 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
12,687
A: 15 / B: 12672
Series A
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF)
TMF
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
USD/JPY Exchange Rate
DEXJPUS
FRED · 13,911 raw → 13,911 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0742
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0002
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dexjpus_stock-tmf_daily_5y