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Correlation
of % moves
-5%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-01
1,238
These move opposite each other about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes barely line up — almost no shared pattern.
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-5%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-11% → +1%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,238 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
11,375
Normalized
1,255
11,375
Prepared
1,255
11,375
Aligned
1,238
1,238
Invalid removed
R²(i)
0.2%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,238
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-5%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,237 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-5%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-5%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+10%
56 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-21%
55 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-41%
138 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
10,154
A: 17 / B: 10137
Series A
TMF
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
USD/HKD Exchange Rate
DEXHKUS
FRED · 11,375 raw → 11,375 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0008
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0000
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-dexhkus_stock-tmf_daily_5y