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Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) vs Baa Corporate Bond Yield
Correlation
of % moves
-90%
In sync
of periods
9%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-02
1,242
These move in the same direction about 9% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~81% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-90%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,242 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
10,161
Normalized
1,254
10,161
Prepared
1,254
10,161
Aligned
1,242
1,242
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
81%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,241
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-90%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,241 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-90%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-90%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-82%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-69%
139 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
8,931
A: 12 / B: 8919
Series A
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF)
TMF
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Baa Corporate Bond Yield
DBAA
FRED · 10,161 raw → 10,161 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3150
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0000
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dbaa_stock-tmf_daily_5y