SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-97%
of % moves
In sync
9%
of periods
History
1,246
days · through 2026-05-01
These move opposite each other about 9% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~95% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
9.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-97%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-98% → -97%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,246 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
10,119
Normalized
1,255
10,119
Prepared
1,255
10,119
Aligned
1,246
1,246
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
94.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,246
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-97%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,246 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-97%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-97%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-33%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-72%
243 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
8,882
A: 9 / B: 8873
Series A
TMF
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
Baa Corporate Bond Yield
DBAA
FRED · 10,119 raw → 10,119 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0113
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
6.5106
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-dbaa_stock-tmf_5y