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Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) vs US Core CPI
Correlation
of % moves
-27%
In sync
of periods
39%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
58
These move in the same direction about 39% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~8% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
US Core CPI moves ~4 months before TMF
Watch US Core CPI for an early read on TMF.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
39%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-27%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
832
Normalized
1,254
832
Prepared
61
832
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
8%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
56
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-4 months
Correlation at this shift
-36%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Core CPI shifted 4 months later. Reads: "Does Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) today line up with US Core CPI 4 months ago?"
48 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-27%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-4 months
-36%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+46%
22 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
34 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
777
A: 3 / B: 774
Series A
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF)
TMF
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
US Core CPI
CPILFESL
FRED · 832 raw → 832 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0039
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0032
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-cpilfesl_stock-tmf_monthly_5y