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Correlation
of % moves
-31%
In sync
of periods
38%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
58
These move in the same direction about 38% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~10% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
US CPI moves ~16 months before TMF
Watch US CPI for an early read on TMF.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
37.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-31%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-53% → -6%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
951
Normalized
1,254
951
Prepared
60
951
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
9.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-16 months
Correlation at this shift
-41%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
US CPI shifted 16 months later. Reads: "Does Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) today line up with US CPI 16 months ago?"
35 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-31%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-16 months
-41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+27%
21 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-45%
35 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
895
A: 2 / B: 893
Series A
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF)
TMF
Stock · 1,254 raw → 60 prepared
Series B
US CPI
CPIAUCSL
FRED · 951 raw → 951 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0083
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0033
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-cpiaucsl_stock-tmf_monthly_5y