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Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) vs Sticky Price CPI
Correlation
of % moves
-25%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
59
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~6% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-25%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-48% → +1%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
700
Normalized
1,254
700
Prepared
60
700
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
6.3%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-25%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
58 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-25%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-25%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+54%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-17%
18 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-77%
32 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
642
A: 1 / B: 641
Series A
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF)
TMF
Stock · 1,254 raw → 60 prepared
Series B
Sticky Price CPI
CORESTICKM159SFRBATL
FRED · 700 raw → 700 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1214
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0011
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-corestickm159sfrbatl_stock-tmf_monthly_5y