SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-99%
of % moves
In sync
12%
of periods
History
60
months · through 2026-04
These move opposite each other about 12% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount in the opposite direction (~97% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
11.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-99%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-99% → -98%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,255
1,288
Normalized
1,255
1,288
Prepared
61
1,288
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
97.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
60
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-99%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
60 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-99%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-99%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-2%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-77%
52 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,229
A: 1 / B: 1228
Series A
TMF
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,288 raw → 1,288 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0112
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.6900
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-aaa_stock-tmf_5y