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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) vs 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-31%
In sync
of periods
36%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-07
1,243
These move in the same direction about 36% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~10% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
36%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-31%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,243 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
5,881
Normalized
1,254
5,881
Prepared
1,254
5,881
Aligned
1,243
1,243
Invalid removed
10%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,242
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-31%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,242 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-31%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-31%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-10%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+21%
17 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-77%
115 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
4,649
A: 11 / B: 4638
Series A
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
TLT
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
T5YIFR
FRED · 5,881 raw → 5,881 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
25
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.4724
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0002
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-t5yifr_stock-tlt_daily_5y