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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) vs 5Y Breakeven Inflation
Correlation
of % moves
-37%
In sync
of periods
32%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-21
1,244
These move opposite each other about 32% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~13% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
32.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-37%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-41% → -32%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,244 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
5,851
Normalized
1,254
5,851
Prepared
1,254
5,851
Aligned
1,244
1,244
Invalid removed
R²(i)
13.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,244
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-37%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,243 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-37%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+62%
30 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+25%
31 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-81%
188 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
4,617
A: 10 / B: 4607
Series A
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
TLT
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,851 raw → 5,851 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
23
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.6060
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0003
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-t5yie_stock-tlt_daily_5y