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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) vs 10Y-2Y Yield Spread
Correlation
of % moves
-37%
In sync
of periods
33%
History
daysdays · through 2026-09-08
1,244
These move in the same direction about 33% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~14% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
33%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-37%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-42% → -32%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,244 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,253
12,564
Normalized
1,253
12,564
Prepared
1,253
12,564
Aligned
1,244
1,244
Invalid removed
R²(i)
14%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,243
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-37%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,243 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-37%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-20%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+32%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-83%
106 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
11,329
A: 9 / B: 11320
Series A
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
TLT
Stock · 1,253 raw → 1,253 prepared
Series B
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,564 raw → 12,564 prepared
Sign agreement
56.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
23
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.5985
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0013
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-t10y2y_stock-tlt_daily_5y