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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
-24%
In sync
of periods
42%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
59
These move opposite each other about 42% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~6% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
TLT moves ~17 months before Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Watch TLT for an early read on Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
42.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-24%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-47% → +2%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
796
Normalized
1,254
796
Prepared
61
796
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
5.6%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+17 months
Correlation at this shift
-33%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 17 months earlier. Reads: "Does iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 17 months from now?"
41 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-24%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+17 months
-33%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-14%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-40%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-76%
37 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
739
A: 2 / B: 737
Series A
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
TLT
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 796 raw → 796 prepared
Sign agreement
72.2%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.8384
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0043
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_stock-tlt_monthly_5y