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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) vs 10-Year Real Interest Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-44%
In sync
of periods
42%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
61
These move opposite each other about 42% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~20% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-44%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-63% → -21%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
61 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
533
Normalized
1,254
533
Prepared
61
533
Aligned
61
61
Invalid removed
R²(i)
19.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
61
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-44%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
60 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-44%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-44%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-56%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-36%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-83%
35 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
472
A: 0 / B: 472
Series A
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
TLT
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 533 raw → 533 prepared
Sign agreement
95.1%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-3.6614
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0187
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-reaintratrearat10y_stock-tlt_monthly_5y