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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) vs PPI: All Commodities
Correlation
of % moves
-31%
In sync
of periods
32%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
60
These move opposite each other about 32% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~10% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
PPI: All Commodities moves ~16 months before TLT
Watch PPI: All Commodities for an early read on TLT.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
32.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-31%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-53% → -6%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
1,360
Normalized
1,254
1,360
Prepared
61
1,360
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
R²(i)
9.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
60
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-16 months
Correlation at this shift
-42%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
PPI: All Commodities shifted 16 months later. Reads: "Does iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) today line up with PPI: All Commodities 16 months ago?"
43 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-31%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-16 months
-42%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+19%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+47%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-75%
40 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,301
A: 1 / B: 1300
Series A
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
TLT
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
PPI: All Commodities
PPIACO
FRED · 1,360 raw → 1,360 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1165
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0030
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-ppiaco_stock-tlt_monthly_5y