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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) vs PCE Price Index
Correlation
of % moves
-30%
In sync
of periods
36%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
59
These move in the same direction about 36% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~9% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
TLT moves ~16 months before PCE Price Index
Watch TLT for an early read on PCE Price Index.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
36%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-30%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-52% → -5%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
811
Normalized
1,254
811
Prepared
61
811
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+16 months
Correlation at this shift
-43%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
PCE Price Index shifted 16 months earlier. Reads: "Does iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) today line up with PCE Price Index 16 months from now?"
42 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-30%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+16 months
-43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-22%
21 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-32%
37 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
754
A: 2 / B: 752
Series A
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
TLT
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
PCE Price Index
PCEPI
FRED · 811 raw → 811 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0190
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0029
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-pcepi_stock-tlt_monthly_5y