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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) vs PCE Price Index
Correlation
of % moves
-25%
In sync
of periods
41%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
59
These move opposite each other about 41% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~6% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
PCE Price Index moves ~4 months before TLT
Watch PCE Price Index for an early read on TLT.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-25%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-48% → +1%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
807
Normalized
1,254
807
Prepared
61
807
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
6.2%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-4 months
Correlation at this shift
-35%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
PCE Price Index shifted 4 months later. Reads: "Does iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) today line up with PCE Price Index 4 months ago?"
54 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-25%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-4 months
-35%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-11%
24 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-29%
34 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
750
A: 2 / B: 748
Series A
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
TLT
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
PCE Price Index
PCEPI
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0148
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0031
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-pcepi_stock-tlt_monthly_5y