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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) vs Velocity of M2 Money Stock
Correlation
of % moves
-36%
In sync
of periods
41%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
19
These move opposite each other about 41% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~13% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-36%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-71% → +13%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
19 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
269
Normalized
1,254
269
Prepared
61
269
Aligned
19
19
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
12.8%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
19
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -8 to 8 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-36%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
18 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-36%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-36%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-22%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-75%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
292
A: 42 / B: 250
Series A
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
TLT
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Velocity of M2 Money Stock
M2V
FRED · 269 raw → 269 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0505
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0098
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-m2v_stock-tlt_monthly_5y