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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) vs Fed Funds Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-26%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
60
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~7% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
TLT moves ~2 months before Fed Funds Rate
Watch TLT for an early read on Fed Funds Rate.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-26%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-48% → +0%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,255
863
Normalized
1,255
863
Prepared
61
863
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
R²(i)
6.6%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
60
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+2 months
Correlation at this shift
-39%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Funds Rate shifted 2 months earlier. Reads: "Does iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) today line up with Fed Funds Rate 2 months from now?"
57 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-26%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+2 months
-39%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-23%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+66%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
43 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
804
A: 1 / B: 803
Series A
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
TLT
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 863 raw → 863 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.4529
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0518
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-fedfunds_stock-tlt_monthly_5y