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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) vs EUR/USD Exchange Rate
Correlation
of % moves
+17%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
1,237
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~3% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+17%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+11% → +22%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,237 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,253
6,864
Normalized
1,253
6,864
Prepared
1,253
6,864
Aligned
1,237
1,237
Invalid removed
R²(i)
2.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,237
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+17%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,236 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+17%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+17%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+16%
42 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+43%
49 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-59%
52 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
5,643
A: 16 / B: 5627
Series A
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
TLT
Stock · 1,253 raw → 1,253 prepared
Series B
EUR/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSEU
FRED · 6,864 raw → 6,864 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
21
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0795
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0000
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexuseu_stock-tlt_daily_5y