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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) vs USD/CHF Exchange Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-28%
In sync
of periods
40%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-02
1,239
These move in the same direction about 40% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~8% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
40%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-28%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,239 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
13,917
Normalized
1,254
13,917
Prepared
1,254
13,917
Aligned
1,239
1,239
Invalid removed
8%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,238
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-28%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,238 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-28%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-28%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+15%
24 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+44%
24 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-75%
94 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
12,693
A: 15 / B: 12678
Series A
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
TLT
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
USD/CHF Exchange Rate
DEXSZUS
FRED · 13,917 raw → 13,917 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
27
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1438
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0002
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-dexszus_stock-tlt_daily_5y