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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) vs Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Correlation
of % moves
-25%
In sync
of periods
40%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
58
These move in the same direction about 40% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~6% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
40%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-25%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
472
Normalized
1,254
472
Prepared
61
472
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
6%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
57
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-25%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
57 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-25%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-25%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-20%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+47%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-74%
34 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
417
A: 3 / B: 414
Series A
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
TLT
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 472 raw → 472 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0575
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0034
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-csushpinsa_stock-tlt_monthly_5y