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iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) vs US Core CPI
Correlation
of % moves
-27%
In sync
of periods
41%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
58
These move in the same direction about 41% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~7% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
US Core CPI moves ~4 months before TLT
Watch US Core CPI for an early read on TLT.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-27%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-50% → -1%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,255
831
Normalized
1,255
831
Prepared
61
831
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
7.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-4 months
Correlation at this shift
-36%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Core CPI shifted 4 months later. Reads: "Does iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) today line up with US Core CPI 4 months ago?"
48 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-27%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-4 months
-36%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+10%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-43%
33 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
776
A: 3 / B: 773
Series A
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
TLT
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
US Core CPI
CPILFESL
FRED · 831 raw → 831 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0114
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0032
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-cpilfesl_stock-tlt_monthly_5y