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Correlation
of % moves
-34%
In sync
of periods
34%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
58
These move in the same direction about 34% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~12% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
TLT moves ~16 months before US CPI
Watch TLT for an early read on US CPI.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
34%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-34%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-56% → -9%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
954
Normalized
1,254
954
Prepared
61
954
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
12%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
56
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+16 months
Correlation at this shift
-46%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
US CPI shifted 16 months earlier. Reads: "Does iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) today line up with US CPI 16 months from now?"
32 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-34%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+16 months
-46%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-19%
19 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-41%
37 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
899
A: 3 / B: 896
Series A
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
TLT
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
US CPI
CPIAUCSL
FRED · 954 raw → 954 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0301
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0031
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-cpiaucsl_stock-tlt_monthly_5y