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TJX Companies, Inc. (The) (TJX) vs Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Correlation
of % moves
-44%
In sync
of periods
40%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
58
These move in the same direction about 40% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~19% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
TJX moves ~13 months before Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Watch TJX for an early read on Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
40%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-44%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
472
Normalized
1,254
472
Prepared
61
472
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
19%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
57
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+13 months
Correlation at this shift
-50%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Case-Shiller Home Price Index shifted 13 months earlier. Reads: "Does TJX Companies, Inc. (The) (TJX) today line up with Case-Shiller Home Price Index 13 months from now?"
44 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-44%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+13 months
-50%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-30%
19 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-72%
34 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
417
A: 3 / B: 414
Series A
TJX Companies, Inc. (The) (TJX)
TJX
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 472 raw → 472 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0834
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0052
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-csushpinsa_stock-tjx_monthly_5y