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Target Corporation (TGT) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
-37%
In sync
of periods
31%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
59
These move in the same direction about 31% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~14% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
31%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-37%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-58% → -12%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,253
799
Normalized
1,253
799
Prepared
61
799
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
14%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
57
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-37%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
57 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-37%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-49%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-14%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-70%
42 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
742
A: 2 / B: 740
Series A
Target Corporation (TGT)
TGT
Stock · 1,253 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 799 raw → 799 prepared
Sign agreement
75.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.2936
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0036
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_stock-tgt_monthly_5y