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Teledyne Technologies Incorporated (TDY) vs Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Correlation
of % moves
-33%
In sync
of periods
37%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
59
These move in the same direction about 37% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~11% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
TDY moves ~5 months before Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Watch TDY for an early read on Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
37%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-33%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-54% → -7%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
800
Normalized
1,254
800
Prepared
61
800
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
11%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
57
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+5 months
Correlation at this shift
-38%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator shifted 5 months earlier. Reads: "Does Teledyne Technologies Incorporated (TDY) today line up with Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator 5 months from now?"
47 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-33%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+5 months
-38%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-10%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+24%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-56%
39 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
743
A: 2 / B: 741
Series A
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated (TDY)
TDY
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME
FRED · 800 raw → 800 prepared
Sign agreement
75.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3853
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0054
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-sahmrealtime_stock-tdy_monthly_5y