Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
TransDigm Group Inc. (TDG) vs Interest on Reserve Balances
Correlation
of % moves
-7%
In sync
of periods
29%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-11
1,201
These move opposite each other about 29% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~1% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
29.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-7%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-13% → -2%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,201 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,255
1,748
Normalized
1,255
1,748
Prepared
1,255
1,748
Aligned
1,201
1,201
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
0.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,201
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-7%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,200 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-7%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-7%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+57%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-12%
240 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
601
A: 54 / B: 547
Series A
TDG
Stock · 1,255 raw → 1,255 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,748 raw → 1,748 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1784
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0027
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-iorb_stock-tdg_daily_5y