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Correlation
of values
+58%
In sync
of periods
62%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
282
These move in the same direction about 62% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~34% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
62%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+58%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
282 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
5,881
966
Normalized
5,881
966
Prepared
283
966
Aligned
282
282
Invalid removed
34%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
282
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+58%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
282 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+58%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+58%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+1%
74 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+41%
62 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
81 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
685
A: 1 / B: 684
Series A
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
T5YIFR
FRED · 5,881 raw → 283 prepared
Series B
Spot Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate
WTISPLC
FRED · 966 raw → 966 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
19
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
41.1872
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-23.8973
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-t5yifr_fred-wtisplc_monthly_5y