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Correlation
of values
-32%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
280
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~10% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Total Consumer Credit moves ~9 months before 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
Watch Total Consumer Credit for an early read on 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-32%
Based on values
95% CI
-42% → -21%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
280 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,000
5,862
Normalized
1,000
5,862
Prepared
1,000
282
Aligned
280
280
Invalid removed
R²(i)
10.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
280
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+9 months
Correlation at this shift
-37%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate shifted 9 months earlier. Reads: "Does Total Consumer Credit today line up with 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate 9 months from now?"
271 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-32%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+9 months
-37%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0%
99 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-16%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-35%
104 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
722
A: 720 / B: 2
Series A
Total Consumer Credit
TOTALSL
FRED · 1,000 raw → 1,000 prepared
Series B
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
T5YIFR
FRED · 5,862 raw → 282 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.6050
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-t5yifr_fred-totalsl_monthly_5y