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Correlation
of values
-41%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
281
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~17% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
5Y Breakeven Inflation moves ~8 months before Unemployment Rate
Watch 5Y Breakeven Inflation for an early read on Unemployment Rate.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-41%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
281 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
941
5,881
Normalized
941
5,881
Prepared
941
283
Aligned
281
281
Invalid removed
17%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
281
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-8 months
Correlation at this shift
-47%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
5Y Breakeven Inflation shifted 8 months later. Reads: "Does Unemployment Rate today line up with 5Y Breakeven Inflation 8 months ago?"
265 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-8 months
-47%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-1%
44 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-31%
43 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-53%
131 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
662
A: 660 / B: 2
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 941 raw → 941 prepared
Series B
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,881 raw → 283 prepared
Sign agreement
98.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1140
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.6143
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-t5yie_fred-unrate_monthly_5y