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Correlation
of values
+49%
In sync
of periods
72%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
280
These move in the same direction about 72% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~24% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
71.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+49%
Based on values
95% CI
+39% → +57%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
280 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
5,842
964
Normalized
5,842
964
Prepared
281
964
Aligned
280
280
Invalid removed
R²(i)
23.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
280
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+49%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
280 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+49%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+49%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+26%
109 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+83%
72 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
68 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
685
A: 1 / B: 684
Series A
10Y Breakeven Inflation
T10YIE
FRED · 5,842 raw → 281 prepared
Series B
Spot Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate
WTISPLC
FRED · 964 raw → 964 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
19
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
28.1991
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.2609
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-t10yie_fred-wtisplc_monthly_5y