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Correlation
of values
-48%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
daysdays · through 2026-06-05
5,852
These move in the same direction about 43% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~23% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-48%
Based on values
95% CI
-50% → -46%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
5,852 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
5,862
9,202
Normalized
5,862
9,202
Prepared
5,862
9,202
Aligned
5,852
5,852
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
23.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
5,852
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-48%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
5,852 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-48%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-48%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-90%
6 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
3,360
A: 10 / B: 3350
Series A
10Y Breakeven Inflation
T10YIE
FRED · 5,862 raw → 5,862 prepared
Series B
VIX
VIXCLS
FRED · 9,202 raw → 9,202 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
334
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-10.1654
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
40.5216
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-t10yie_fred-vixcls_daily_5y