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Correlation
of values
-48%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-23
1,225
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~23% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-48%
Based on values
95% CI
-52% → -44%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,225 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,225
11,110
Normalized
1,225
11,110
Prepared
1,225
2,319
Aligned
1,225
1,225
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
23.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,225
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-48%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,225 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-48%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-48%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-72%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,094
A: 0 / B: 1094
Series A
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,225 raw → 1,225 prepared
Series B
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,110 raw → 2,319 prepared
Sign agreement
83.2%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.3328
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-t10y3m_fred-walcl_weekly_5y