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Correlation
of values
+60%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
531
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~36% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+60%
Based on values
95% CI
+54% → +65%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
531 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
939
11,090
Normalized
939
11,090
Prepared
939
533
Aligned
531
531
Invalid removed
R²(i)
35.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
531
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+60%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
531 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+60%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+60%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+7%
54 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-17%
81 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-27%
114 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
410
A: 408 / B: 2
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 939 raw → 939 prepared
Series B
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,090 raw → 533 prepared
Sign agreement
89.1%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
39
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4084
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.8872
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-t10y3m_fred-unrate_monthly_5y