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Correlation
of values
-47%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-23
1,225
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~22% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-47%
Based on values
95% CI
-51% → -42%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,225 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
12,501
1,225
Normalized
12,501
1,225
Prepared
2,611
1,225
Aligned
1,225
1,225
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
21.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,225
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-47%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,225 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-47%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-47%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+20%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-83%
7 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,386
A: 1386 / B: 0
Series A
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,501 raw → 2,611 prepared
Series B
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,225 raw → 1,225 prepared
Sign agreement
86.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1245889.3429
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5290787.9030
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-t10y2y_fred-walcl_weekly_5y