SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+1%
of values
In sync
49%
of periods
History
598
weeks · through 2026-09
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes barely line up — almost no shared pattern.
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Bank Reserves moves ~12 weeks before 10Y-2Y Yield Spread
Watch Bank Reserves for an early read on 10Y-2Y Yield Spread.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+1%
Based on values
95% CI
-7% → +9%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
598 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
12,476
807
Normalized
12,476
807
Prepared
2,605
807
Aligned
598
598
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
0.0%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
598
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
-12 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-7%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Bank Reserves shifted 12 weeks later. Reads: "Does 10Y-2Y Yield Spread today line up with Bank Reserves 12 weeks ago?"
586 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+1%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-12 weeks
-7%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-1%
75 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-17%
65 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-22%
109 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,216
A: 2007 / B: 209
Series A
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,476 raw → 2,605 prepared
Series B
Bank Reserves
TOTRESNS
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Sign agreement
82.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
15.3534
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
852.0573
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-t10y2y_fred-totresns_5y