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Correlation
of values
+24%
In sync
of periods
63%
History
daysdays · through 2026-06-08
5,862
These move in the same direction about 63% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~6% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+24%
Based on values
95% CI
+22% → +26%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
5,862 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
12,501
5,862
Normalized
12,501
5,862
Prepared
12,501
5,862
Aligned
5,862
5,862
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
5.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
5,862
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+24%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
5,862 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+24%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+24%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
6,639
A: 6639 / B: 0
Series A
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,501 raw → 12,501 prepared
Series B
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
T5YIFR
FRED · 5,862 raw → 5,862 prepared
Sign agreement
86.6%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
69
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0813
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.1637
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-t10y2y_fred-t5yifr_daily_5y