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Correlation
of values
+25%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
390
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~6% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
St. Louis Financial Stress Index moves ~16 months before Unemployment Rate
Watch St. Louis Financial Stress Index for an early read on Unemployment Rate.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+25%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
390 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
941
1,696
Normalized
941
1,696
Prepared
941
391
Aligned
390
390
Invalid removed
6%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
390
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-16 months
Correlation at this shift
+49%
+23% stronger than no-shift baseline
St. Louis Financial Stress Index shifted 16 months later. Reads: "Does Unemployment Rate today line up with St. Louis Financial Stress Index 16 months ago?"
366 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+25%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-16 months
+49%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+74%
26 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-22%
36 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-39%
69 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
552
A: 551 / B: 1
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 941 raw → 941 prepared
Series B
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,696 raw → 391 prepared
Sign agreement
36.7%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
17
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1396
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.7701
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-stlfsi4_fred-unrate_monthly_5y