Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+24%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
388
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~6% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
St. Louis Financial Stress Index moves ~16 months before U-6 Unemployment Rate
Watch St. Louis Financial Stress Index for an early read on U-6 Unemployment Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+24%
Based on values
95% CI
+15% → +34%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
388 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,692
388
Normalized
1,692
388
Prepared
390
388
Aligned
388
388
Invalid removed
R²(i)
6.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
388
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+16 months
Correlation at this shift
+46%
+22% stronger than no-shift baseline
U-6 Unemployment Rate shifted 16 months earlier. Reads: "Does St. Louis Financial Stress Index today line up with U-6 Unemployment Rate 16 months from now?"
365 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+24%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+16 months
+46%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+60%
29 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+50%
42 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-50%
62 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2
A: 2 / B: 0
Series A
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,692 raw → 390 prepared
Series B
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 388 raw → 388 prepared
Sign agreement
36.6%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.7408
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.9999
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-stlfsi4_fred-u6rate_monthly_5y