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Correlation
of values
-33%
In sync
of periods
39%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-18
1,218
These move opposite each other about 39% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~11% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
St. Louis Financial Stress Index moves ~9 weeks before 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
Watch St. Louis Financial Stress Index for an early read on 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
39.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-33%
Based on values
95% CI
-38% → -28%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,218 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,688
5,842
Normalized
1,688
5,842
Prepared
1,688
1,219
Aligned
1,218
1,218
Invalid removed
R²(i)
10.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,218
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
+9 weeks
Correlation at this shift
-39%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate shifted 9 weeks earlier. Reads: "Does St. Louis Financial Stress Index today line up with 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate 9 weeks from now?"
1,209 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-33%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+9 weeks
-39%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-1%
63 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+66%
61 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-77%
125 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
471
A: 470 / B: 1
Series A
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,688 raw → 1,688 prepared
Series B
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
T5YIFR
FRED · 5,842 raw → 1,219 prepared
Sign agreement
30.2%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
79
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0929
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.2457
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-stlfsi4_fred-t5yifr_weekly_5y