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Correlation
of % moves
+26%
In sync
of periods
61%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-28
500
These move in the same direction about 61% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~7% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
61.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+26%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+17% → +34%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
500 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
729
1,254
Normalized
729
1,254
Prepared
729
1,254
Aligned
500
500
Invalid removed
R²(i)
6.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
500
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+26%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
499 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+26%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+26%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+3%
89 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+23%
74 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-29%
86 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
983
A: 229 / B: 754
Series A
Stellar (XLM)
XLM
Crypto · 729 raw → 729 prepared
Series B
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
SPY
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0479
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0007
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last week · ID: crypto-xlm_stock-spy_daily_5y