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Existing Home Sales vs State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
Correlation
of % moves
+50%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
13
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~25% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+50%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-11% → +83%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
13 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
13
1,254
Normalized
13
1,254
Prepared
13
61
Aligned
13
13
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
25%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
12
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -2 to 2 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+50%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
12 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+50%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+50%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+16%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
6 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
48
A: 0 / B: 48
Series A
Existing Home Sales
EXHOSLUSM495S
FRED · 13 raw → 13 prepared
Series B
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
SPY
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
8
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4276
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0141
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-exhoslusm495s_stock-spy_monthly_5y